The world needs to abandon fossil fuels urgently, rather than relying on a stable climate by resorting to insufficiently proven technological solutions, such as systems to absorb and neutralize CO2 from the air. This is indicated by various experts and activists before the new report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Experts and activists argue that the science is very clear. Speculative technological solutions (such as those involving geoengineering or systems to directly neutralize or capture CO2) are not an effective instrument for achieving a rapid and effective phase-out of all fossil fuels.
It is his position on the last of the three reports that make up the sixth global assessment of warming (the work of UN scientists). The report leaves the door open for this type of system, including the direct capture of CO2 from the air.
The report points out that the best recipe to avoid uncontrolled climate change is the implementation of measures with rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
This involves the phasing out of fossil fuels, and the implementation of transformative changes to favour renewable energy, increase energy efficiency and encourage electrification.
This third installment of the global warming assessment shows the wide range of options for achieving a stable climate, many of them focused on the conservation and restoration of forests and lands; and all aligned with sustainable development and substantial increase in funding.
Wind farm in Aragon
Third report
This third part of the sixth climate change assessment report has undoubtedly been the most controversial. Its central axis is the political, technological and financial solutions that must be applied to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The first part of the sixth report, referring to the scientific basis of climate change, was published on August 9, 2021 and pointed out to the world the scarce possibilities of avoiding warming below 1. 5º C. And the second part, published last February, showed the catastrophic effects that warming will cause, although it was disseminated just as the invasion of Ukraine took place.
The report, a hundred-page document based on the work of hundreds of scientists over the past eight years, had been produced for some time, but by the weekend the drafting of "summary for policymakers," a selection of key messages that takes up only about 40 pages, was yet to be completed. While scientists write the report itself, the summary, which is the reference document for governments, is "dressed" with input from all UN member states that wish to be represented.
The report makes it clear that there is less and less chance that humanity can maintain warming below 1.5ºC (the goal of the Paris agreement). Keeping that goal alive is possible, but it requires a significant shift in efforts to phase out fossil fuels, build an electrified global energy system, end deforestation, and address uncontrolled methane emissions.
Stephen Cornelius (WWF)
"We can't hold on to fossil fuels anymore"
"We can no longer cling to polluting fossil fuels that are ruining our climate and destroying the natural world on which we all depend," says Stephen Cornelius, WWF world leader for the IPCC and head of WWF's delegation to these negotiations.
In its view, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is unattainable unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, which would entail large-scale investments in the promotion of renewable energy, energy efficiency and the restoration of nature; that is, it is necessary to act away from unsustainable business practices and leaving no one behind in this transition." Every moment, every policy, every investment, every decision is important to avoid further climate chaos," says Cornelius.
Turbine next to a coal-fired power plant
"Avoid catastrophic levels of warming"
"The rapid and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels must be the centerpiece of any science-based mitigation strategy" aimed at "avoiding catastrophic levels of global warming," notes Nikki Reisch, director of the climate and energy program at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL).
"Relying on speculative technologies" to achieve emissions in the future but once the temperature rise has exceeded 1.5°C "will cost lives and inflict more irreversible damage," Reisch adds. For this specialist, the conclusions of the Panel demonstrate that "freedom from dependence on fossil fuels is fundamental for the global climate, for world peace and for economic stability."
Fossil fuels associated with geopolitical conflicts
"Decades of failure in global leadership, combined with a unique approach by fossil fuel companies focused on profits, as well as unsustainable consumption patterns in the world's wealthiest households, are endangering our planet," said Rachel Cleetus, climate policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Fossil fuels are the main cause of climate change, of environmental injustices, and, as we are seeing in Ukraine right now, they are frequently associated with geopolitical struggles and conflicts," Cleetus adds.
The latest IPCC report once again warns policymakers that the trajectory of gas emissions is alarmingly off track. But for scientists the solutions are obvious and have long been: "The world needs to quickly eliminate fossil fuel emissions in all sectors of the economy and accelerate a transformative shift toward clean energy," Cleetus notes.
"Polluters continue to avoid making bold changes"
Many voices express frustration and criticism at the fact that, despite "the mountain of evidence, the radical action needed to meet climate goals is not being pushed." They lament that "polluters continue to avoid making the bold changes to our energy, food and industrial systems, which are the only escape route from catastrophic climate change."
This is what Teresa Anderson, leader of Action Aid International, says. "The IPCC report clearly warns that reliance on technological solutions and mere tree plantations to solve the problem not only amounts to illusion, but would generate conflicts over land and damage the food, ecosystems and communities that are already most affected by the climate crisis."
Costs of solar, wind and batteries have been reduced by 85%
The latest IPCC report notes that all sectors have readily available solutions at their fingertips to reduce more than half of gas emissions by 2030 and complete a path so that warming does not exceed 1.5ºC.
"Since the last report, technologies have improved significantly and the costs of solutions such as solar, wind and batteries have been reduced by up to 85%," says Stephanie Roe, one of the IPCC authors.
Around 20 countries have shown that they can reduce emissions through economic policies and measures that have boosted energy efficiency, among other measures.
Some countries' reductions are consistent with limiting warming to 2°C, but none are yet on track for a 1.5°C pathway. Clearly, we have the tools to tackle the climate crisis, but they need to be implemented more quickly and on a larger scale to keep the 1.5°C target within reach and reduce the severity of climate impacts."
Installation of a photovoltaic plant in a file photo
Clean energy must grow six times a year on average until 2030
The report highlights that solar and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency, have the greatest economic potential to reduce carbon emissions by 2030 in this decade. Therefore. Stephan Singer, senior advisor at the Climate Action Network International, calls on governments to get their hands on making investments in clean technologies grow up to six times a year on average until 2030, so that temperatures do not rise more than 1.5°C.
However, all "this must be accompanied by the protection of virgin forests and the restoration of degraded ecosystems and a shift to low-carbon, plant-based diets.
Phase out almost all coal, oil and gas production by 2050
The IPCC report notes that the world must phase out virtually all coal, oil and gas production by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 while safeguarding the sustainable development goals.
"We must begin to divert investments in fossil fuels towards renewables, and this process must begin today. The good news is that we can ensure long-term climate and energy security by building an energy system based on renewable energy and energy storage," says Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
"Countries must commit to more ambitious climate goals and more than double their annual investments in wind and solar over the next 10 years to move away from fossil fuels in a way that is consistent with climate science, justice and sustainable development."
More ambitious climate targets
"Governments must respond to this report in two ways. On the one hand, they must set higher climate targets for this decade, in order to close the 1.5°C emissions gap. And we need a much stronger implementation of climate policies to really achieve those emissions cuts," says Tom Evans, climate policy and diplomacy adviser at E3G think tank.
The pressure is concentrated on the main emitting countries to embark on this path without delay. It's not just what they promised to do at last year's UN climate summit (in Glasgow), but also what today's report urgently demands."
A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
"We've crossed the line of human history where we think that continuing to burn things is a bad idea, because it undermines both the climate and democracy," says Bill McKibben, founder of the climate campaign 350.org, before pointing out the possibilities of relying on solar energy.
"We have the technology, we need the will! At this point, a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is essential," he says.
Oxfam Alert
Extreme weather phenomena and losses
"Without large-scale action, humanity faces worsening hunger, disease, economic crises, mass migration and unbearable heat," says Nafkote Dabi, Oxfam's climate change policy officer. It's no longer about 'taking your foot off the gas'. Now you have to 'hit the brakes thoroughly'. Global warming is humanity's greatest emergency."
"Climate change is already causing extreme weather events and the losses they generate do not stop accumulating. But these losses don't affect everyone equally. People living in poverty are the ones who suffer the most and the most. Farming families in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia have lost their crops and herds due to an exceptionally long and harsh drought. Millions of people in East Africa are on the brink of famine. Meanwhile, wealthy people, whose carbon footprint is huge, continue to put air conditioning on their mega yachts," warns Nafkote Dabi.
Rescue of a girl, her father and a dog in the abbotsford floods in British Columbia on November 16, 2021. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press
"Every action to reduce emissions, and every centigrade that limits global warming counts." With current plans, the world is heading towards a warming of 2.7°C. This is a death sentence for countries vulnerable to climate events such as Vanuatu and Bangladesh. Rich countries are primarily responsible for the climate crisis and have a dual responsibility to reduce their emissions and to support developing countries in meeting the costs of replanting crops and rebuilding homes destroyed by storms, and moving from dirty to cleaner energy sources."
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